Betting and stats expert Justin Ray is Head of Content for Twenty First Group. Here are his five key insights ahead of the Finals...
Two teams remain in the chase for the SoFi Cup.
One of our remaining clubs isn’t surprising: Los Angeles Golf Club entered last year’s playoffs as the top overall seed before stumbling in the Semifinals to New York.
At times this season, its starting lineup consisted of three of the top five players in the Official World Golf Ranking.
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On the other hand, there’s almost no mathematical way Jupiter Links GC should be in this position.
With its season on the line against The Bay Golf Club and just three holes to play, Jupiter had a less than 8% probability of winning. The run they have been on since then – Tom Kim's hole-in-one included – has been nothing short of remarkable.
Here are the top numbers and notes to know ahead of the Finals, which get started Monday at 9 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
JUPITER SOARING IN SINGLES
Scorching-hot Jupiter Links GC has made it this far thanks to a complete 180 when it comes to performance in the Singles format. Through its first eight matches as a team, Jupiter had a dismal record of 9-19-20 (an 18.8% hole-win rate) in Singles play.
But in its three-match sprint to these Finals, it is a terrific 10-4-3 (58.8% hole-win rate). Jupiter averaged 1.4 points per match in Singles before this current stretch where it is getting five points in Singles every time out.
The run has been led by Max Homa, who has won all six of his last Singles holes. It’s the longest streak of Singles holes won in TGL history, breaking the mark set by Xander Schauffele in Season 1 (five straight).
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HISTORY ON LA’S SIDE
Jupiter will have to overcome some pretty overwhelming head-to-head history between themselves and their Finals opponent. In two previous matchups, LAGC has won both times, hammering Jupiter by a combined score of 20 to 5. The 20 points for LAGC against Jupiter is tied for the most by one team against a single opponent. Atlanta has also scored 20 points against New York Golf Club – the key difference being those two teams have met four times (vs. two matchups for LAGC-Jupiter).
Jupiter has never beaten Los Angeles head-to-head on a par 5 hole, losing eight times and tying twice. However, this might not be the same Jupiter Links GC of old. In its Semifinal win over Boston Common Golf, Jupiter swept the par 5s, 4-0-0, the first time a team has done that across two seasons of TGL.
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GAINING STROKES
These two teams have been arguably the two strongest this season when it comes to ball striking. LAGC leads all clubs in strokes gained off the tee per match this season, while Jupiter Links GC ranks third. Meanwhile, Jupiter and LA rank first and second in strokes gained approach per match.
It’s difficult to overstate just how good Homa has been for Jupiter this season. He leads all TGL players in strokes gained approach (+7.4) and strokes gained ball striking, which combines shots off the tee and approaches (+10.2).
And how about Justin Rose? One of the oldest competitors in TGL leads all players this season in strokes gained off the tee (+3.2).
HOLE TO WATCH: CENOTE
Los Angeles has the better record of the two clubs on most of the holes in play Monday. But one key exception comes on Cenote, which will be the 12th hole. Jupiter has a 5-0-1 record on that hole this season, easily the best record of any team. LAGC meanwhile has struggled, going just 1-4-1.
The lineups have Sahith Theegala and Kevin Kisner squaring off on Cenote in Singles on Monday. Theegala is 2-for-3 finding the green on tee shots there this year, with one ball going into the penalty area. Kisner has found dry land both times he’s teed it up on the par 3 hole.
CONTRAST OF STYLES
These two teams earned their points this season in very different ways. Los Angeles GC gained 65% of its total points in the regular season in Triples, the highest rate of any team in the league. Including the Semifinals, Jupiter has earned 54% of its points in Singles, the highest rate of any team in that category.
Can Jupiter rely on its hot streak in Singles if it falls behind early? Across both TGL seasons, LAGC is 5-0-1 when leading a match after nine holes. It also enters Monday night a combined 6-0-1 this season on holes 13 and 14, Cut The Sails and Cliffhanger.
If that’s the case, Jupiter might need some more hole-out magic to lift the SoFi Cup.
Finals Prediction
Justin Ray's prediction: LAGC to win the SoFi Cup (-140 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Odds accurate at time of publication