Betting and stats expert Justin Ray is Head of Content for Twenty First Group. Here are his five key insights ahead of the Semifinals...
Boston Common Golf went from winless in 2025 to the top overall seed entering this year’s postseason. Meanwhile, Jupiter Links will try to build on its miraculous comeback win over The Bay Golf Club on the final day of the regular season that pushed them into the playoff picture.
The playoffs begin, though, with Atlanta and Los Angeles meeting in the first match of Tuesday night’s doubleheader at SoFi Center.
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Here are the top numbers and notes to know ahead of the TGL Semifinals.
ATLANTA SET TO DEFEND TITLE
The champion of the inaugural season, Atlanta Drive GC begins its postseason this year against Los Angeles Golf Club. When these two teams met last month, LAGC won the first three holes of Triples and never looked back, knocking off Atlanta 7-3.
Chris Gotterup is in the lineup for the fifth time this season for Atlanta, hoping to build on an excellent 5-2-1 record in Singles.
Speaking of Singles, Patrick Cantlay flipped a switch when the postseason arrived last year, going undefeated (3-0-3). That’s a sharp contrast from his 2-6-6 record in Singles across both TGL regular seasons.
One year after picking up 22 points on par 3 holes, Atlanta tied for the fewest par 3s won as a team in 2026 (5 points). How it navigates those holes Tuesday could determine whether or not we have a new SoFi Cup champion.
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DON’T SLEEP ON SAHITH
LAGC finished the regular season strong, winning its last two matches by a combined score of 13 to 5. In both matches, the club employed its strongest lineup by Official World Golf Ranking – Collin Morikawa, Justin Rose and Tommy Fleetwood – a group that has led after 91.1% of its holes played across both TGL seasons. However, after Morikawa’s withdrawal from THE PLAYERS Championship with a back issue, that won’t be the case for the Semifinals.
Don’t expect much of a drop-off in performance, though, with Sahith Theegala back in the lineup. He’s the team leader across both seasons in strokes gained putting per match and boasts an 8-5-3 record all-time in Singles. He’s also third in TGL this season in strokes gained around the green average and has a handful of top-10 finishes this season on the PGA TOUR.
LAGC enters the playoffs having not lost a par 4 hole in its last three matches (9-0-6).
NO LONGER HAMMER HELPLESS
Two teams make their postseason debuts Tuesday, and they’ll do it in head-to-head fashion. Both No. 1-seed Boston Common Golf and No. 4-seed Jupiter Links GC had markedly different results with the Hammer in 2026 compared to last year. For Boston, it was a -7 point differential in 2025 that turned into +6 this year. Jupiter went from an abysmal -12 margin last season (last in the league) to +2 on their way to the playoffs.
Jupiter earned five points all last season with the Hammer. In their incredible comeback win against The Bay Golf Club to make the playoffs, they won seven points with it.
As for that comeback win, Jupiter Links GC had a match win probability of less than 8% standing on the 13th tee. In the first eight matches in team history, the club had a total of three hole-outs (putting or otherwise) of 10 ft or longer. They have had six in the last two matches – five putts and Tom Kim’s hole-in-one.
Both times these two teams have met, the match went to overtime. Jupiter got the win in Season 1, while Boston squeaked by in this year’s meeting (by a mere five inches).
POWER AND PRECISION
With a roster loaded with excellent drivers of the ball, it’s no surprise that success on par 5s has been paramount for Boston Common Golf. Since the beginning of last season, Boston has hit the green in two on 34.5% of the par 5s they have played as a team. The rate for all other clubs? Just 20.0%.
On the first four par 5 holes in play Tuesday, Boston is unbeaten this season: 6-0-4.
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One of the biggest turnarounds in Boston’s performance in 2026 has come on putts from 5 to 10 ft. In 2025, the team made those putts at a rate of 50.0%, lowest of any team. This season, they lead all teams in that statistic (68.2% make rate).
MORE SUCCESS FOR JUPITER?
Two of the men who engineered Jupiter’s comeback win to make the playoffs – Max Homa and Tom Kim – are in the lineup Tuesday. No player has figured out the greens at SoFi Center quite as well as Kim: He has never missed a putt from the 4 to 8 foot range, going 11-for-11. All other players across both TGL seasons have made those putts just a little more than two-thirds of the time (67.6%).
Meanwhile, Max Homa has been busy recently completely flipping his personal narrative in Singles. Through the first six matches of his career, he was just 1-6-5 in that format. Over the last two matches, he’s won all four holes he has played.
Semifinals predictions
Justin Ray's prediction: Los Angeles Golf Club to beat Atlanta Drive GC (-138 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Justin Ray's prediction: Boston Common Golf to beat Jupiter Links Golf Club (-168 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
Odds accurate at time of publication.